Trends, Thoughts, & Links For A New Decade In Tech

Interesting spotlight by mainstream media on cloud computing in this week’s Barron’s. Cloud computing is the inevitable and rapidly increasing use of the web in place of firmware and IT infrastructure. (Ex: Use web-based trading platform or database at work? Then a portion of your day is spent on ‘the cloud’.) It will be a long-term development with many small wins along the way with a handful of potential jackpots. Or for the Magellan/Lynch fans out there lots of two-baggers but ten-baggers will be few and far between from this play.

For those not swinging for the fences there will be many companies that help solve the security issue that is initial and important concern that I would look into. Anyone who, like myself, makes use of a ‘token’ to access/manipulate sensitive info knows the players in this market. And I imagine it to be sticky business, an easy sell to customers, and have high margins with somewhat light R&D expenditure for technology firms. All things that an investor that knows what separates also-rans from rockstars should like.

I think the elephant in the room of this trend is the long-term goals and aspirations of Google. What helps makes the connection in my head is web browsers.When initially loading up a PC which, of course, will be running on Windows the pre-installed, default web browser is Microsoft Internet Explorer. The function of which is only one non-differentiated task. Load and navigate websites. Rotten.com has the same content no matter what browser (Trust me). Unsurprisingly, taking this information under consideration, MSFT had 90% web browser market share four years ago. Recent data puts them in the 60% range currently.

In four short years they have lost 25% share (Firefox’s current %) to a company that is run non-profit; had little resources, R&D, infrastructure, or management that a 200 billion dollar company has. Also worth pointing out is the average tech savvy and overall intellectual curiosity of the majority of computer users is not geared towards exploring/finding other options for a program that already does the same exact thing. “Another web browser? Why? I already get the internet.”
Ever watch someone sit down on a computer with no IE icon and see the expression on their face? The uneasiness they feel? The only logical conclusion based on this info is that Internet Explorer was such an appallingly bad product (IE 6, yep) and that Microsoft’s attitude towards in-house development/closed-source coding (an extension of the firm being behind the code that was/is the cashcow of the computer era, the gift that keeps on giving, the operating system, Windows) forced the marketplace to shift away from a free program that does exactly the same thing. Pretty amazing.

Connecting the dots now. Google is pushing Chrome in a real, somewhat mainstream fashion. And they have the
resources, R&D, infrastructure, and management of a 200 billion dollar company. And I know for a fact that advertising works very well on a good portion of the “Another web browser? Why? I already get the internet.” crowd. In fact they butter advertisers bread by finding products in the media by recognizable names as instantly more credible. Proof: GOOG already has climbed to the market share it took Firefox three years to achieve.

Now what would stop Google from, I don’t know, completely undercutting MSFT on PC cost (they could pretty much just give then away), loaded with a Google OS that completely ran on ‘the cloud’ and the entire thing would be paid for through additional advertising (on the OS and as sole advertiser on websites). Or some other company. Or combination. Maybe MSFT will kick into gear.


Link - Barrons: Cloud computing, which shifts tech tasks into cyberspace, will be as revolutionary as the Internet itself

Following Venture Capital for Signs of Tech to Come (NYT)

CNN: Companies Google should buy (note: Currently they have 22 billion cash on their balance sheet, which is absurd. To give you idea they could buy out Garmin, Sun Microsystems, and AOL today and still hold seven billion for the next rainy day)