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Think For Yourself

Market is going higher. Healthy consilidation and built a strong base. Should breakout to new yearly highs from here into new year. Top picks EPD, Ez Corp. (EZPW), LG Display (LPL). And short higher edu school stocks, specifically Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), and basically anyone in the business of giving online diplomas in communication/business areas of study. Implementation of thesis Friday at the close and have been rewarded thus far. However with the exception of LG Display, these have 1-3 month time frame in my mind.

"These days investors have relearned that the investments everyone is talking about are usually ones you don't want to buy. The risks of chasing a highflier generally outweigh the rewards. It takes a 100% profit to recover from a 50% loss.

The best investments are usually the ones nobody is talking about. Ten years ago, everybody was talking about which technology stocks to buy. Almost nobody was talking about gold. The Bank of England could barely give the stuff away at $260 an ounce."  Don't Chase Highflying Stocks - (WSJ)

Higher Edu Is Ponz

"The sticker price of colleges has gone up well over the rate of inflation, for decades," he said.
Indeed, if the price of gas had grown as much as the cost of a bachelor's degree since 1980, drivers would be filling up today for about $7.50 per gallon."

MSM common sense on higher edu bubble- Debt Filled (ABC News)

Nice directory/tutorial on algorithms (LINK)

New street high price target for Amazon issued by Shittygroup - $170 (AMZN) No denying that they are bellwether and one of the most important/innovative in tech space. Along with AMZN my best of breed large cap tech names remain Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOG).

If you have even a toe dipped in the stock market some exposure in these names is a no brainer. Look to (QTEC) for a diversified vehicle to take advantage of all three. (It's the Nasdaq 100, which includes pretty big weights in all three). The estimates got jacked much higher and quite a few shorts have gotten comfortable in the name. They will shit themselves and cover their bets like they have before.

Twitter Updated

Twitter feed updated with the latest names coming out of my screens. I will post parameters/backtesting results at later date.

Links

Great look at genetics/environment and the contribution they make on your personality - The Science of Success (The Atlantic)

Levels to watch on the indexes - Reference Levels (Afraid To Trade)

Food for thought pertaining to the hyper inflation thesis. My thought is that it won't pan out in the doom and gloom scenario many are predicting but inflation will have to come in much higher than expected. Gold Isn't The Best Hedge For Inflation (Bloomberg) You can't just turn on the printing press like we have without the pendulum swinging the other direction.

Man I really nailed that Disney call yesterday.

You're welcome.

Will Be Out 'Til 12/16

Going To:



And:

Book Summary - How To Win Friends and Influence People (Part 3 of 4)

C.   Closing the Deal

• Get the other person saying "yes, yes" as soon as possible.



• Emphasize things all parties already agree on.


• As Socrates suggested, win one concession after another until, without realizing it, your opponent is forced to agree to a position that would have otherwise been fiercely rejected.


• In today’s information dense environment, we actively seek to reject proposals and information. Getting others to say yes immediately drives momentum in the direction of acceptance.

• Dramatize your ideas.



• It helps to make a visual, visceral demonstration of your ideas:



• When presenting a competitive assessment of MP3 players, bring the competitors’ products to your meeting.


• When selling an anti-theft devices for cars, a dramatic video demonstrating the experience of getting one's car stolen will help sales.

• Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.



• People are more committed to their own ideas. 


• Make suggestions and let others come to the desired conclusions.


• It may be in your best interest not to claim any credit.

• Appeal to the nobler motives.



• People often have multuple reasons for doing something. At least one will sound good as an external justification. The real reasons may often be hidden. Appeal to the one that sounds good.


• Example: As a tenant gives notice that he is preparing to break his lease, his landlord praises the tenant’s good character. The landlord insists the tenant is a man of his word and will live up to the terms of the lease he signed.


• Example 2: A celebrity wanted to avoid having an unflattering photo published. He asked the paper who owned the photo not to publish it, as his mother disliked the picture.

• Throw down a challenge.



• Stimulate competition among co-workers.


• Challenge someone’s capabilities/self-perceptions.



• To a body builder: “Is he strong enough to get the job done?”


• To help persuade a job applicant to take the job “This job will require someone really motivated to succeed, it isn’t a position for everyone.”

Market Going

Disney & LPL - Part Of The 'Kick The Baby' Theme Introduced Yesterday

I like Disney here too. Despite being in an awful sector in transition they are a group of consumers who are historically suckers and slow to move. All one needs to do is look at record sales for High School Musical or whatever else parents are being talked into buying to realize these are not informed purchases necessarily. These are let go of my arm and be quiet and I will buy you that Miley coloring book or that Jonas poster. They own ABC, ESPN (which should be spun off IMHO), ABC Family, the parks (where business will continue to suck), Pixar, etc.

More academically, yes I have inspected the state of physical formats (CDs, DVDs). It is in flux (sucks dick)  and will continue to. This is a bet not on the entertainment industry but on the Disney star-making machine. Disney just purchased the Marvel catalog which includes 5000 characters. Say it with me 'cross-platform revenue synergies'.

All of the investment dollars that are allocated within this sector have to go somewhere and while I can not get stoked an 11% 5-year income growth rate some people might have to. Technically it looks favorable to quite favorable, you get a 1% yield for your trouble and this is low volatility play (safe, use next years ComEd budget).

And I like LPL. (pin action from GLW and a great chart, k?)

As always do your own research.

Top Picks

Kick The Baby

Top Picks

Worthwhile E-Mail Exchange

If My Job Was Like This It Would Be More Exciting

Guilty Pleasure

Fact Of Day

Ron Paul named his son Rand. Love me some RP but Christ, The Fountainhead isn't that inspirational.Yall going to name ur kids Meyer

You Think Your Learning Curve Was Steep

 Court documents from SAC Capital case reveal:

Unreal. No positions are currently open but be sure to CTRL + D that shit as it sounds like a dream work environment.

Book Summary - How To Win Friends And Influence People by Andrew Carniege - (Part 2 of 4)

B. Establish a Space for Cooperation
Avoid arguments: you can only lose.
Most arguments end with each contestant more certain of their opinions and less willing to change them. Even if you win, you hurt the pride of the loser and the loser may resent you for it.

“If you argue, rankle and contradict, you may achieve a victory sometimes; but it will be an empty victory, because you will never get your opponent’s good will.” – Ben Franklin

A Guide to avoiding arguments:

1.Welcome disagreements.

2. Stay calm.

3. Listen first. Hear others out.

4. Identify areas of agreement

5. Admit your errors to make it easier for others to admit theirs.
6. If no there is resolution to be found, delay action and promise to explore the alternative perspective further.

Begin in a friendly way.
Opening conversations with sincere praise, appreciation and/or sympathy will disarm your conversation partner.
Beginning with a friendly tone will free the others to be more open minded.
Example: One fellow who couldn’t afford his rent increase invited his landlord over for the closing inspection. The tenant complimented the landlord on the building’s location, good management and gave the landlord a sympathetic ear for his problems with other tenants. After only casually mentioning he couldn’t afford the increased rent, the landlord reduced the rent without having been asked directly.

• Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.
• Especially when angry, allow others to finish talking themselves out.
• Don’t interrupt. Others won’t pay attention to you until they’ve had thier own say.

1. Be sympathetic with the other person's ideas and desires.
2. Most people hunger for sympathy.
3. Sympathize truthfully: “If I were you, I’d feel the same way under your circumstances.” Follow up statements might be: “How could they do that to you?”  “You poor thing.”  “After you sacrificed so much.”
   

Example: A hotel had to inconvenience their guests as the escalator repaired for 8 hours. In order to get the hotel manager to consent to the repairs, the repair company reclassified their work as preventative maintenance that would prevent a eventual two week shut down in the future.

• Respect others’ opinions. Never say, "You're wrong."
• People don’t like to admit even to themselves that may be wrong, but when handled gentlely they can overcome that hesitancy.
• Telling others they are wrong:  may be considered a putdown to their intelligence.  often pushes them to defend and further embrace their positions.
• Body language can also communicate "you’re wrong."
• Don’t immediately assume you’re right. Demonstrating your willingness to rationally examine the facts will inspire others to do likewise.

If you are wrong, admit it quickly and dramatically.

1. If another is about to criticize you, don’t let them start!
2. People often enjoy criticizing others to promote their own righteousness. Once started, the other party may expand their critique to include unrelated subject areas.
3. The negative emotions may be long remembered and could damage relationships in the long-term.
4. A harsh self-rebuke may prompt the other party to soften their critique; however, too many exaggerated, harsh self-rebukes will lead the other to question your sincerity.
5. Admitting your errors clears guilt and frees everyone to move toward solutions more quickly.

Try to honestly see things from the other person's point of view.

Understanding another’s point of view and motivation is the key to understanding their decisions and personality.
Ask yourself:
Why would someone want to do as I ask?
Is there some point of information we are interpreting differently?

Example: A group of boy scouts may ignore a no camp fires rule, believing that they can responsibly construct and put out a camp fire safely. A park ranger could demand the group adhere to the rules, but would get better results by acknowledging the scouts’ point of view. He could point out that while the scouts know what they’re doing, other groups are not as careful. The scouts’ fires could lead irresponsible people to start fires as well.

Frame requests in terms of what others find motivating.

Before attempting to drive someone to action, ask yourself, “How do I make this person want to do it?”


“If there is any one secret to success, it lies in the ability to get the other person’s point of view and see things from that person’s angle as well as your own.” – Henry Ford

Example: Rather than force his young son to go to kindergarten, one man’s family began engaging in kindergarten activities – finger painting, etc. – while excluding the young child. After seeing all the exciting things he would be doing in kindergarten, the child was eager to go.
Example: In the following letter, a freight company details their difficulties, while disregarding the inconvenience their changes might cause their customers. After having the reverse effect from what was intended, a second letter was sent, which spoke in terms of what were the customers’ best interests.

Enjoy All The Data While You Still Can - Tech/Telecom Thoughts

The iPhone is a mixed blessing for AT&T (T). Well it has been great for ramping up the subscriber base the performance of their network has steeply declined. What does it take for the iPhone to no longer be a gift but a curse?

In a research report out from Bernstein it is estimated the average iPhone user consumes 5x-7x as much monthly bandwidth as an average subsriber, and more than double the typical 3G smartphone user. With heavier users consuming 1-5 GB a month. The report goes on to predict that this will trigger usuage-based pricing in the future as competitors could take advantage of this with lower-priced alternatives for those who don't need as many frills.

My thought is that they need to do something about the network, even if that means higher prices. Users getting 1-5 GB of bandwidth a month will pay, they prob. have the $ from all that time they are spending using the internets. Or who knows maybe they are just 'surfing' and 'taking names in web-based java app games' on their commute. Regardless, this user will pay. If not they are not worth it, the calls dropping, the dip in robustness needs to get fixed sooner rather than later. iPhone exculsivity is up next year and people who were quick to change in first place, might be quick to change back

Presented Without Comment

GOOOOOOOLLLLLLD!

Cocaine Kudlow's open letter to Tiger Woods. (CNBC)

Stocks are safe to buy here with rubles, pesos, and even with your worthless US Dollars.

Links

I am all for being green and improving the system but I think this would just be yet another ponzi tax (ie: social security, the federal reserve) on the great majority. (Guardian: Carbon Trading Market - Bigger Than Oil?) This would be bullish for the exchanges if it gets rolled out in a big way. CME Group &; ICE

Top hedge fund manager and undenaibly the hottest hand in money management world pushes some chips around. (Market Folly: Examining Paulson's Bet Against The Dollar

Although I wonder what compels people to agree to their photo session aesthetic. No one does long-form profiles like 'em. (VF: The Bank Job (Goldman) Muggin' it up for the camera knowingly. Like they just created programming algorithm to make trillions for firm using mental math, of course. Phhsst.

LINK: 999 Free Startup Ideas

LINK: Starbucks (SBUX) Gaming Those Intetionally Avoding Them (Reuters)

LINK: Hedonist GTD