12.21.2009

Think For Yourself

Market is going higher. Healthy consilidation and built a strong base. Should breakout to new yearly highs from here into new year. Top picks EPD, Ez Corp. (EZPW), LG Display (LPL). And short higher edu school stocks, specifically Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), and basically anyone in the business of giving online diplomas in communication/business areas of study. Implementation of thesis Friday at the close and have been rewarded thus far. However with the exception of LG Display, these have 1-3 month time frame in my mind.
"These days investors have relearned that the investments everyone is talking about are usually ones you don't want to buy. The risks of chasing a highflier generally outweigh the rewards. It takes a 100% profit to recover from a 50% loss.
The best investments are usually the ones nobody is talking about. Ten years ago, everybody was talking about which technology stocks to buy. Almost nobody was talking about gold. The Bank of England could barely give the stuff away at $260 an ounce."  Don't Chase Highflying Stocks - (WSJ)

12.17.2009

Higher Edu Is Ponz

"The sticker price of colleges has gone up well over the rate of inflation, for decades," he said.
Indeed, if the price of gas had grown as much as the cost of a bachelor's degree since 1980, drivers would be filling up today for about $7.50 per gallon."
MSM common sense on higher edu bubble- Debt Filled (ABC News)

Nice directory/tutorial on algorithms (LINK)

New street high price target for Amazon issued by Shittygroup - $170 (AMZN) No denying that they are bellwether and one of the most important/innovative in tech space. Along with AMZN my best of breed large cap tech names remain Apple (AAPL), and Google (GOOG).

If you have even a toe dipped in the stock market some exposure in these names is a no brainer. Look to (QTEC) for a diversified vehicle to take advantage of all three. (It's the Nasdaq 100, which includes pretty big weights in all three). The estimates got jacked much higher and quite a few shorts have gotten comfortable in the name. They will shit themselves and cover their bets like they have before.

12.16.2009

Twitter Updated

Twitter feed updated with the latest names coming out of my screens. I will post parameters/backtesting results at later date.

Links

Great look at genetics/environment and the contribution they make on your personality - The Science of Success (The Atlantic)

Levels to watch on the indexes - Reference Levels (Afraid To Trade)

Food for thought pertaining to the hyper inflation thesis. My thought is that it won't pan out in the doom and gloom scenario many are predicting but inflation will have to come in much higher than expected. Gold Isn't The Best Hedge For Inflation (Bloomberg) You can't just turn on the printing press like we have without the pendulum swinging the other direction.

12.10.2009

Man I really nailed that Disney call yesterday.

You're welcome.

Will Be Out 'Til 12/16

Going To:



And:

Book Summary - How To Win Friends and Influence People (Part 3 of 4)


C.   Closing the Deal

  • Get the other person saying "yes, yes" as soon as possible.


    • Emphasize things all parties already agree on.

    • As Socrates suggested, win one concession after another until, without realizing it, your opponent is forced to agree to a position that would have otherwise been fiercely rejected.

    • In today’s information dense environment, we actively seek to reject proposals and information. Getting others to say yes immediately drives momentum in the direction of acceptance.


  • Dramatize your ideas.


    • It helps to make a visual, visceral demonstration of your ideas:


      • When presenting a competitive assessment of MP3 players, bring the competitors’ products to your meeting.

      • When selling an anti-theft devices for cars, a dramatic video demonstrating the experience of getting one's car stolen will help sales.



  • Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.


    • People are more committed to their own ideas. 

    • Make suggestions and let others come to the desired conclusions.

    • It may be in your best interest not to claim any credit.


  • Appeal to the nobler motives.


    • People often have multuple reasons for doing something. At least one will sound good as an external justification. The real reasons may often be hidden. Appeal to the one that sounds good.

    • Example: As a tenant gives notice that he is preparing to break his lease, his landlord praises the tenant’s good character. The landlord insists the tenant is a man of his word and will live up to the terms of the lease he signed.

    • Example 2: A celebrity wanted to avoid having an unflattering photo published. He asked the paper who owned the photo not to publish it, as his mother disliked the picture.


  • Throw down a challenge.


    • Stimulate competition among co-workers.

    • Challenge someone’s capabilities/self-perceptions.


      • To a body builder: “Is he strong enough to get the job done?”

      • To help persuade a job applicant to take the job “This job will require someone really motivated to succeed, it isn’t a position for everyone.”



12.09.2009

Market Going

Disney & LPL - Part Of The 'Kick The Baby' Theme Introduced Yesterday

I like Disney here too. Despite being in an awful sector in transition they are a group of consumers who are historically suckers and slow to move. All one needs to do is look at record sales for High School Musical or whatever else parents are being talked into buying to realize these are not informed purchases necessarily. These are let go of my arm and be quiet and I will buy you that Miley coloring book or that Jonas poster. They own ABC, ESPN (which should be spun off IMHO), ABC Family, the parks (where business will continue to suck), Pixar, etc.

More academically, yes I have inspected the state of physical formats (CDs, DVDs). It is in flux (sucks dick)  and will continue to. This is a bet not on the entertainment industry but on the Disney star-making machine. Disney just purchased the Marvel catalog which includes 5000 characters. Say it with me 'cross-platform revenue synergies'.

All of the investment dollars that are allocated within this sector have to go somewhere and while I can not get stoked an 11% 5-year income growth rate some people might have to. Technically it looks favorable to quite favorable, you get a 1% yield for your trouble and this is low volatility play (safe, use next years ComEd budget).













And I like LPL. (pin action from GLW and a great chart, k?)












As always do your own research.

Top Picks


12.07.2009

Guilty Pleasure

12.04.2009

Fact Of Day

Ron Paul named his son Rand. Love me some RP but Christ, The Fountainhead isn't that inspirational.Yall going to name ur kids Meyer

You Think Your Learning Curve Was Steep

 Court documents from SAC Capital case reveal:








Unreal. No positions are currently open but be sure to CTRL + D that shit as it sounds like a dream work environment.

12.03.2009

Book Summary - How To Win Friends And Influence People by Andrew Carniege - (Part 2 of 4)

B. Establish a Space for Cooperation
Avoid arguments: you can only lose.
Most arguments end with each contestant more certain of their opinions and less willing to change them. Even if you win, you hurt the pride of the loser and the loser may resent you for it.

“If you argue, rankle and contradict, you may achieve a victory sometimes; but it will be an empty victory, because you will never get your opponent’s good will.” – Ben Franklin

A Guide to avoiding arguments:

1.Welcome disagreements.

2. Stay calm.

3. Listen first. Hear others out.

4. Identify areas of agreement

5. Admit your errors to make it easier for others to admit theirs.
6. If no there is resolution to be found, delay action and promise to explore the alternative perspective further.

Begin in a friendly way.
Opening conversations with sincere praise, appreciation and/or sympathy will disarm your conversation partner.
Beginning with a friendly tone will free the others to be more open minded.
Example: One fellow who couldn’t afford his rent increase invited his landlord over for the closing inspection. The tenant complimented the landlord on the building’s location, good management and gave the landlord a sympathetic ear for his problems with other tenants. After only casually mentioning he couldn’t afford the increased rent, the landlord reduced the rent without having been asked directly.
  • Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.
  • Especially when angry, allow others to finish talking themselves out.
  • Don’t interrupt. Others won’t pay attention to you until they’ve had thier own say.
  1. Be sympathetic with the other person's ideas and desires.
  2. Most people hunger for sympathy.
  3. Sympathize truthfully: “If I were you, I’d feel the same way under your circumstances.” Follow up statements might be: “How could they do that to you?”  “You poor thing.”  “After you sacrificed so much.”
Example: A hotel had to inconvenience their guests as the escalator repaired for 8 hours. In order to get the hotel manager to consent to the repairs, the repair company reclassified their work as preventative maintenance that would prevent a eventual two week shut down in the future.

  • Respect others’ opinions. Never say, "You're wrong."
  • People don’t like to admit even to themselves that may be wrong, but when handled gentlely they can overcome that hesitancy.
  • Telling others they are wrong:  may be considered a putdown to their intelligence.  often pushes them to defend and further embrace their positions.
  • Body language can also communicate "you’re wrong."
  • Don’t immediately assume you’re right. Demonstrating your willingness to rationally examine the facts will inspire others to do likewise.
If you are wrong, admit it quickly and dramatically.
  1. If another is about to criticize you, don’t let them start!
  2. People often enjoy criticizing others to promote their own righteousness. Once started, the other party may expand their critique to include unrelated subject areas.
  3. The negative emotions may be long remembered and could damage relationships in the long-term.
  4. A harsh self-rebuke may prompt the other party to soften their critique; however, too many exaggerated, harsh self-rebukes will lead the other to question your sincerity.
  5. Admitting your errors clears guilt and frees everyone to move toward solutions more quickly.
Try to honestly see things from the other person's point of view.

Understanding another’s point of view and motivation is the key to understanding their decisions and personality.
Ask yourself:
Why would someone want to do as I ask?
Is there some point of information we are interpreting differently?

Example: A group of boy scouts may ignore a no camp fires rule, believing that they can responsibly construct and put out a camp fire safely. A park ranger could demand the group adhere to the rules, but would get better results by acknowledging the scouts’ point of view. He could point out that while the scouts know what they’re doing, other groups are not as careful. The scouts’ fires could lead irresponsible people to start fires as well.

Frame requests in terms of what others find motivating.

Before attempting to drive someone to action, ask yourself, “How do I make this person want to do it?”


“If there is any one secret to success, it lies in the ability to get the other person’s point of view and see things from that person’s angle as well as your own.” – Henry Ford

Example: Rather than force his young son to go to kindergarten, one man’s family began engaging in kindergarten activities – finger painting, etc. – while excluding the young child. After seeing all the exciting things he would be doing in kindergarten, the child was eager to go.
Example: In the following letter, a freight company details their difficulties, while disregarding the inconvenience their changes might cause their customers. After having the reverse effect from what was intended, a second letter was sent, which spoke in terms of what were the customers’ best interests.

Enjoy All The Data While You Still Can - Tech/Telecom Thoughts

The iPhone is a mixed blessing for AT&T (T). Well it has been great for ramping up the subscriber base the performance of their network has steeply declined. What does it take for the iPhone to no longer be a gift but a curse?

In a research report out from Bernstein it is estimated the average iPhone user consumes 5x-7x as much monthly bandwidth as an average subsriber, and more than double the typical 3G smartphone user. With heavier users consuming 1-5 GB a month. The report goes on to predict that this will trigger usuage-based pricing in the future as competitors could take advantage of this with lower-priced alternatives for those who don't need as many frills.

My thought is that they need to do something about the network, even if that means higher prices. Users getting 1-5 GB of bandwidth a month will pay, they prob. have the $ from all that time they are spending using the internets. Or who knows maybe they are just 'surfing' and 'taking names in web-based java app games' on their commute. Regardless, this user will pay. If not they are not worth it, the calls dropping, the dip in robustness needs to get fixed sooner rather than later. iPhone exculsivity is up next year and people who were quick to change in first place, might be quick to change back

12.02.2009

Presented Without Comment

GOOOOOOOLLLLLLD!

Cocaine Kudlow's open letter to Tiger Woods. (CNBC)
















Stocks are safe to buy here with rubles, pesos, and even with your worthless US Dollars.

12.01.2009

Links

I am all for being green and improving the system but I think this would just be yet another ponzi tax (ie: social security, the federal reserve) on the great majority. (Guardian: Carbon Trading Market - Bigger Than Oil?) This would be bullish for the exchanges if it gets rolled out in a big way. CME Group &; ICE

Top hedge fund manager and undenaibly the hottest hand in money management world pushes some chips around. (Market Folly: Examining Paulson's Bet Against The Dollar

Although I wonder what compels people to agree to their photo session aesthetic. No one does long-form profiles like 'em. (VF: The Bank Job (Goldman) Muggin' it up for the camera knowingly. Like they just created programming algorithm to make trillions for firm using mental math, of course. Phhsst.

LINK: 999 Free Startup Ideas

LINK: Starbucks (SBUX) Gaming Those Intetionally Avoding Them (Reuters)

LINK: Hedonist GTD

11.30.2009

Book Summary - How To Win Friends And Influence People by Andrew Carniege - (Part 1 of 4)

I am constantly reading. Everyone I know who is worth the time and energy of getting to know is well read. Most of successful self-made individuals I know have paid dues through self-education. The good part is that there is such a diverse range of information easily available. You know the file-sharing programs you currently use for music & or movies? Try searching for some relevant books you have been hoping to get around to, you should have some luck. Of course, I just usually scroll the 'e-book' category as the good sites have set-up search parameters to filter by category.

Problem is, most books I read that are of the informational/educational/aspirational variety are 15x is long as they need to be. See "Rich Dad, Poor Dad". Great book for its target audience, but christ his point could have been hammered home with same effectiveness in twenty pages. Thus, I am going to be summarizing some books that have great insight but can boiled down to key concepts for myself & readers.

I'll be starting off with one of the all-time classic business and self-help books. Many hucksters have ridden its coattails and turned 'self-help books' into an oxymoron. My thought is you probably can use maybe one or two good books with this type of advice in your life. Oh, and fuck "The Secret".


Book Summary - How To Win Friends And Influence People - (Part 1 of 4) 


A. Building Personal Relationships

Never criticize, condemn or complain:

§ People very rarely criticize themselves, no matter how wrong they may be. Your criticism will not be welcome.

§ "I will speak ill of no man, and speak all the good I know of everybody.” – Ben Franklin

§ Criticism puts others on the defensive, hurts self-esteem, and builds resentment. Criticism is futile.

§ Positive Reinforcement works better. Example: Reprimanding soldiers for not wearing their helmets is less effective than asking if the helmets are uncomfortable and reminding them that the hats were designed for their protection.

Become genuinely interested in other people.

§ People are most interested in themselves. If you share that interest, they will respond.

§ If you talk to people about themselves, they will keep listening and listening.

§ Remember birthdays and other important personal details.

Talk in terms of the other person's interests.

§ Find the interests of others and talk about those things.

§ Begin any conversation disscussing the other’s interests and you’ll find them to be much more open to suggestion.

§ If you know nothing of their interests, try to ask intelligent questions about their interests. Perhaps ask for the story of how they developed those interests.

Be a good listener.

§ Give other's your exclusive attention.

§ Urge others to talk about themselves.

§ Ask pointed questions.

§ By simply listening and asking questions, others will think you are a great conversationalist.

§ Listen to others’ concerns/complaints, you will ease tension and build relationships.

§ Be eager to hear from those who may complain about you or your those you represent, however wrong those complaints may be.

§ Impress upon them how eager you are to hear them.

§ Thank them for bringing up their concerns.

Make the other person feel important.

§ People yearn to feel important and appreciated.

§ Continually recognizing someone’s expertise and capabilities will make them feel important. They will want to demonstrate their expertise by possibly helping you.

§ “I am hearty in my approbation and lavish in my praise.” – Charles Schwab.

§ Give others clear authority over a part of a larger project and help them understand their tangible contributions. They’ll become more committed to the success of the project.

§ Be sincere and avoid flattery. However, obvious, over-the-top flattery can often win smiles and carry the same favor as if it were sincere.

Use Names Whenever Possible

§ People love hearing their names, it's a favorite word.

§ Remember someone’s name and a few personal details.

Smile


§ Greet others with enthusiasm and animation.

§ A smile tells others that you like them and are glad to see them.

§ Smile even when on the phone; the smile will be clear in the tone of your voice.


11.24.2009

Brilliant

The Fly does it again. Class in session at his site.

LINK: Drama Queens.

Good to see him on top of his game.

This Gap Will Follow-Through

Safe to buy with December's rent payment:














In my fucking sleep I can tell you it goes to 45. Monthly Chart:














Not a recommendation. You may lose money. Back to 'surfing' the internet.

11.23.2009


So I missed this on Friday due to being insanely checked out (not unusual) but a company I really respect http://www.teslamotors.com/ is being rumored to be taken public. They are the maker of working and functional electric cars, something the Detroit boys have never figured out. They are working on a 30k sedan and I would be huge proponent of them going public with the production of it being the intention for the $. Could be big, with a working affordable electric cars being huge catalyst to ending foreign dependence on oil, saving the environment, yadda yadda yadda. But we should give more tax-payer  money to GM. I agree. Let them catch up. Phhssst.

Official reuters story: http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssTechMediaTelecomNews/idUSWEN683620091120

 Related: http://newwealth.blogspot.com/2009/10/fail.html

Fun Way To Get The Hard Sell For Life



Just enter your phone number, dancing .gifs command you! It will be resold 99x! This is so 2k6. Makes me nostalgic.

Jesus christ I had no clue Monday would be an up day after the last tweleve Mondays that have got bid up. Needless to say this will be slow week, turkey gods and all. I am bullish due to it being my favorite holiday.

Top picks:

























































Turkey day is my fave holidays of all holidays due to it just feeling so American to stuff my face and pass out on the couch. Two activities I excel in. Eating and winning at the game of sleep.

11.20.2009

Arts & Crafts



A-Level Prank.

MVP. Stocks are fun.

Top Picks















I am bullish on the mainstream potential of the Keurig. Good revenue model and I see gloomy eyed caffiene addicts slowly realizing the benefits of having make@home espresso shots to the dome ON DEMAND. Triple shot plz.















I am bullish on coal. Global growth. Energy going up. Lack of a care for environment in large developing economies. Cheapest form of energy? Coal. To get raw materials to the coasts of countries to ship globally what do we use? Railroads. Which run on coal. Careful on this commodity trade as the momentum pendulum swings quick and hard. It 'trends' well. Trade with it. I sold Walter Industries (WLT) at $100 last year to watch it collapse to $10 as the world was imploding. So you may find yourself losing your Home Equity Credit line money you've been gambling with. Just warning.



Hope your weekends filled with many shake weight practice sessions. Take a report.

11.17.2009

DOG FIGHT

via Vanity Fair:
There’s nothing like a good old-fashioned dogfight,” says Fox Business Network’s Magee. That’s true, but so far FBN, along with Bloomberg, has been merely yapping ineffectually at the St. Bernard on the block, CNBC."
Mike Vick will tell ya. Shouldn't this idiom be in bad taste. Or no?
 

DISH


















Sold half my DISH call options (DEC / 21). If you followed my moves on Twitter you would be up 90% on this investment. That is all.

11.16.2009

DOOM


Faber's Commentary - He Is a Doctor Ok

click for detail:





11.11.2009

11.10.2009

GOLD & LINKS

 
PM COMMENTARY: A Must Read From David Einhorn - (he has actually started storing physical gold, apparently outside of office somewhere in NY, awesome)



















left: Scrooge McDuck (visionary gold perma-bull)




11.06.2009

Formal Education Will Train You For Jobs of "Tomorrow"

Many of our peers are the modern day equivalent of horse-buggy sales reps biding their time as the new-fangled assembly line began pumping out car after car.Can't speak for all but I'm checked out for the weekend.



Ah, intellectual leverage & the social web.

The top 10 jobs in demand for 2010 did not even exist six years ago. Education can't keep with it. Meaning someone entering high school (even college) now need to be able to perform jobs that don't yet exist using technologies that have yet to be invented.

Know University of Phoenix right? Them the 'online' college. And will I am certain steamroll you or if no initial contact, try to trick you into getting on the line for the hard sell. (must read internal training memo) Oh other fun fact, our tax-dollars are bank rolling over 75% of loans. (link)


Read: Money Comes Rolling In

11.04.2009

Professional Trader Profile - Gary Wagner - Candlesticks

Japanese candlesticks offer a "mathematical expression of psychological market sentiment" to trader Gary Wagner, who
utilizes these Eastern technical indicators in conjunction with Western tools to actively trade for himself. It took Wagner several years into the commodity business before he began utilizing Japanese candlesticks in his interpretation of the markets. After college, he entered the industry as a broker and around "1989-1990, FutureSource began displaying price
movements over time with candlesticks. It looked interesting, but I didn't know much about what they meant. I started doing a lot of research," Wagner said.

Wagner stumbled upon a book entitled The Japanese Chart of Charts, by Seiki Shimizu, which he calls the "Rosetta Stone of
every candlestick technician in the U.S ... I read it and it was like these light bulbs started going off in my head," Wagner
explained. "After it clicked in, my trading vastly improved. I started making money and my clients started making money," Wagner said. Japanese candlesticks are constructed differently from a traditional Western bar chart. A traditional daily bar chart reveals a vertical bar, representing each day's action. The bar chart reveals the session's high, low and closing price; the latter is seen by a tic to the right of the bar.

However, Japanese candlestick charts are comprised of a rectangular section and two thin lines above or below the section.
According to Trading Applications of Japanese Candlesticks, by Gary Wagner and Brad Matheny, “The candle or pole line is defined as one complete cycle with an open, low, high and close. The thick part of the candle is known as the real body. The thin lines above and below the real body are the shadows and represent the high and low for that cycle ... A white candle (empty) is created when the closing price is just above the opening price for the cycle. Black candles (full) are just the opposite-die opening price must be above the dosing price for the cycle.” However, Wagner utilizes Japanese candlestick charts in conjunction with traditional Western technical analysis.

"Utilizing candlesticks is a win-win situation for the Western technician. We use moving averages, stochastics, trendlines.
But, one can usually obtain more information looking at a candlestick chart. The reason for that is that the Western technician puts his emphasis on the close to the close," Wagner noted. But candlesticks reveal "the relationship between the open and the close of that day. Dynamically, there is a battle going on each day-the candle reveals its outcome," he explained.

"The best traders I've witnessed ... are successful because they maximize upside potential when they are right and they get out quickly if they are wrong," Wagner revealed.Wagner admits that "fundamentals rule the market, but you can distill that in a mathematical way," he says referring to candlesticks. "By removing myself from information overload of the fundamentals, I was able to glean a much more pristine view," he explained.

While Wagner started out as a day-trader, that changed about three to four years ago and now he has become a position trader. Wagner credits the change in his trading style to an actual change in the nature of the markets themselves, which coincided with the emergence of large fund players and large institutional players in the futures arena.

"When the large institutional traders came in, they had such a voracious way of moving the markets because of the mass of
orders," Wagner explained. "I found it difficult from a computer to win because the risk reward changed. My stops didn't hold.”

Now, Wagner believes the "most profitable way to trade is with the trend.” Advice for the beginning futures trader: "Invest in education,” Wagner suggests. He says the new trader is "jumping into a shark-infested pool. In order to survive ... you need good protection ... and very large teeth. Staying power or stamina," is important in order to succeed.

11.02.2009

10.27.2009

Take some change, get some decent clothes for yourself: AAPL determines Chicago not clean enough to match its flawless design aesthics

Plans for Apple to spend about $1.8 million for work on the exterior of the building at North and Clybourn, and about $2.1 million to reimburse the CTA for design construction management and other construction costs. The CTA will rehab the platform level and station interior, while Apple will do the building exterior work. No word yet on whether your Zunes will be scrambled to a screeching high-pitched tone as they pass through but hey small sacrifice, anything for a little non-fare revenue.

Related: The Corporation

And: My Scene

10.26.2009

Fail



People wonder why they have ran themselves into the ground. Buy american.

10.23.2009

Web Automation iMacros - Finance / Company / Ticker Firefox Macro

K. Going to share today.

Step 1: Use Firefox


Step 2: Use/Download iMacros Add-On. (Tools > Add-Ons > Search for iMacros)
D


Step 3: Add code below to automate stock analysis process, since the good/relevant info is never all on one site. Edit for your own use, with most important links for your analysis.


VERSION BUILD=6001001 RECORER=FX
TAB T=1
PROMPT Enterstocksymbol !VAR1 GOOG
URL GOTO=http://www.zackselite.com/reports/detail.php?sym={{!VAR1}}
TAB OPEN NEW
TAB T=2
URL GOTO=http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&btn=s_ok&mode=&symbol={{!VAR1}}&s_ok=OK
TAB OPEN NEW
TAB T=3
URL GOTO=http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t={{!VAR1}}
TAB OPEN NEW
TAB T=4
URL GOTO=http://www.tradestationfundamental.com/Highlights.asp?ticker={{!VAR1}}
TAB OPEN NEW
TAB T=5
URL GOTO=http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol={{!VAR1}}&getquote=Get+Quote
TAB OPEN NEW
TAB T=6
URL GOTO=http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol={{!VAR1}}&Refer=http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/content_stox%3fnext%3dhttps://csweb2w18m3/cgi-bin/preferences
TAB OPEN NEW
TAB T=7
URL GOTO=http://tal.marketgauge.com/phs2/CoRpt.ASP?q={{!VAR1}}&nav=y



Step 4: Makes most sense to add link for macro to toolbar. 

10.19.2009

S&P 1100

Check.

What now?

www.twitter.com/NwWlth

10.16.2009

As If Life Wasn't Enough Of A Letdown

A brilliant writer and I consider him a 'partner' of NWubsBlog (it'll stick) even though he refuses to link through to a 'raving', (hat tip - hh.) unfocused,  finance-themed site. Probs bitter I write but with none of the talent or worthiness. Has a great read where he makes points for discussing MTV: True Life as means to feel better/more together in his RL and sneaks in a enviable shout-out to the DX clique.


What really irks me is that he propses a poll, puts you on the edge of your seat for the coming decision you will make, and includes no web poll. Just acts like he doesn't get web 2.0 and dropped all the goodwill he built in the port-a-john Get cock-teased here.

OT: Tweaking my firefox add-ons all morning. wrote a powerful macro. Have a relavant to topic blog post in the can almost on it so yall can use as well saves tons of time and really pushes the level of robot automation thought possible up in your browsers, of course if you are of my kind, the kind that knows full well that "stocks are fun". 

10.14.2009

USU - Usec Corp. - Go Nuclear







“new, state-of-the-art centrifuge uranium enrichment plant in 2010, and at full production by late 2012. With 30 new nuclear plants in the works, a DOE secured loan imminent for $2B, and a virtual monopoly on the US LEU market”

“USU is the most viable candidate to receive a lions share of $2bln-$4bln worth of Department of Energy loans earmarked for companies that enrich uranium. They are presently the only licensed enrichers of uranium in the United States. They enrich 50% of the uranium used domestically, and 25% of the uranium used world wide. They are presently tapped out of cash having spent every penny developing and proving an enrichment technology that reduces the power consumption of their enrichment process by 95%”

The opportunity: They just got their loan denied by Uncle Sam for the rest of the plant. Go figure, this is exactly not the sort of firm they would support being an alternative energy and a textbook example of American innovation. Glad that we are ‘just trying to make sure the working people get a fair shake in this country’, right?

The Valuation: Had sales last year of 2 billion. It now has customer commitments valued at more than$3.4 billion for the new plant, after Exeleon came to the table with a wet pen for 1.2 billion promptly after the Govnmnt balked. If they get the plant up it doubles their business, either way they have the technology. Now if we start making sense and we are going to see 30 new plants (QUESTION: WILL IT HAPPEN?) this would turn this into an absolute screamer. I have to think that if they were cranking at 8 billion in sales that the margins would expand (say conservative 5% from current 2%) and then you have a company with income of 640 mil a year, at current valuation it would be a 90 dollar stock.  



 NUKE industry friend outlook to the question above: "Do I think we will see new plants, absolutely maybe not 30 but with the amount up for application and the number already scheduled to break ground next year there will definitely be new construction.  As far as reprocessing goes this is technology we developed some time ago and have yet to use it commercially it is currently only used for DOE purposes.  The first commercial reprocessing facility was supposed to open in IL a year ago but clearly that didn't happen.  I believe there was also a reprocessing facility slated to be built somewhere in Texas that was also abandoned before it got going.  The reason for this is simply politics there are organizations spending ridiculous amounts of money trying to stop this from happening which in turn drives production costs up.  France has been using reprocessing for quite some time now without any problems.  The major drawback to reprocessing is that one of the byproducts is weapons grade plutonium.  I think eventually we use reprocessing but we will see new construction at least 5 years before we start reprocessing.  "